— Furniture Today, 2/2/2013 8:24:00 AM
Overall retail sales growth forecast at 4.7%

NEW YORK — Home furnishings and furniture retail sales are expected to be less robust this year than they were last year, according to the National Retail Federation’s chief economist.

Rosalind Wells did not offer a specific projection for the category, or an estimate for the full year 2012. But she said the 2013 pace would be slower than the monthly gain in December 2012, when the category posted a 5.6% increase over the same month of 2004.

With energy costs higher, housing sales softening and interest rates rising, the home furnishings and building supply sectors will be affected the most, she said.

Wells, who presented her 2013 outlook at the NRF’s annual convention here, projected overall U.S. retail sales growth for this year at 4.7%, compared with the 2012 gain of 6.1%.

She predicts increases of 5.6% in the first half, 4.7% in the third quarter and 4% in the fourth quarter.
Yet to be completely factored into the statistics, she added, is the effect of lower prices because of the surge in offshore sourcing.

Looking at U.S. gross domestic product, Wells projects a 3.3% increase this year, a slight slowdown from last year’s 3.5% gain.

“It’s not a bad outlook at all — nothing dire and not a recession,” she said.

Consumers will need to look for new sources of spending power other than cashing out their real estate gains, she said — housing prices “are topping out in some markets” and the pace of refinancings is waning.

In retailing, the luxury market is expected to perform best, while mid-tier department stores will have the most difficulty.